A strong El Niño paired with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has dried out Indonesia's peatlands months early. Cloud seeding — the region's main firefighting tool — was grounded for weeks. By late August, the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre had raised its transboundary haze alert to the highest tier it has.
The Singapore Institute of International Affairs names Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei in its 2026 Red alert. Smoke has since reached further afield, into the Philippines.
Haze returns to the region most dry seasons. What's pushed 2026 into a red-alert year is a specific stack of weather, budget and policy conditions.
El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole — the same pairing behind the 2015 fires, still the benchmark disaster year for the region — dried out Indonesia's dry season earlier and harder than usual.
SIIA has run its annual Haze Outlook since 2019. It has issued a Red risk rating twice: 2023, and now 2026.
El Niño stripped the sky of the rain-bearing clouds that seeding operations need to work, grounding the main firefighting tool for peatland fires through mid-August.
Riau, Sumatra's historic fire hotspot, was allocated roughly $205,500 for fire management in 2026 — described by a local budget-accountability NGO as small for a province with this fire history.
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Singapore's PSI and Malaysia's API use the same bands. Drag the slider, or jump to a reading that's actually been recorded this season.